The U.S. economy may be showing signs of slowing down as the gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, well below the 2.2% consensus forecast. This unexpected slowdown comes after a series of stronger-than-expected GDP reports dating back to last fall.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the increase in GDP in the first quarter was primarily driven by consumer spending and housing investment, but was partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports also increased, further impacting the GDP growth.
The deceleration in economic activity could potentially lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates sooner in an effort to bring inflation down to its 2% target. This would make borrowing costs on various consumer products, such as car loans, credit cards, and home mortgages, more manageable for consumers.
Economists are closely watching the upcoming release of the personal consumption price expenditures index, a key inflation metric followed by the Federal Reserve. The report is expected to show a monthly gain of 0.3% and an annual rate of 2.6%, with the core index (excluding food and energy costs) expected to show inflation at a 2.7% annual rate.
The news of the GDP growth slowdown has already had an impact on the markets, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures falling by 400 points after the report was released. Analysts believe that this report gives Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell some breathing room in deciding when to implement rate cuts later this year, reassuring markets that the economy is not at risk of overheating.