A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed on Sunday, Iranian officials said, sparking fears for the leader’s safety and causing political uncertainty in major oil-producing countries. The crash occurred in mountainous terrain and icy weather, with hopes fading that Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian survived.
In the wake of the crash, oil prices surged on Monday, with Brent crude reaching $84.30 a barrel, its highest level since May 10. US West Texas Intermediate crude also rose to $80.11 a barrel, hitting its highest point since May 1. The uncertainty surrounding Raisi’s fate, coupled with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s cancellation of a Japan trip due to King Salman’s health issues, added to the geopolitical tensions in the region.
Analysts noted that the market remained largely rangebound, awaiting clarity on OPEC+ output policies as the organization is set to meet on June 1. Despite the volatility, oil prices only saw slight movements, with the market appearing numb to geopolitical developments due to OPEC’s spare capacity.
Energy analysts expressed confidence in Saudi Arabia’s energy strategy continuity despite the health issues facing King Salman, emphasizing the market’s familiarity with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s leadership. In the US, Washington took advantage of the recent drop in oil prices to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, signaling support for the market.
Overall, the crash of the Iranian president’s helicopter has added a layer of uncertainty to the already tense energy markets, with analysts closely monitoring developments for potential impacts on oil prices and geopolitical stability.