A new poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist reveals that President Joe Biden may be facing challenges with young voters in the upcoming election. While Biden currently leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup among voters under 45, the dynamic shifts when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are included. In this scenario, Trump surges ahead by 8 points in the same age group.
This trend is consistent among Gen Z and Millennials as well, with Biden leading Trump by 6 points in a one-on-one matchup but falling behind when additional candidates are factored in. Furthermore, young voters, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, are the least likely to express certainty about voting in the presidential election.
Despite Biden’s efforts to appeal to this demographic through initiatives like student debt relief, young voters have expressed dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, they are not necessarily flocking to Trump either.
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, notes that the ultimate allegiance of these dissatisfied young voters remains uncertain. Historically, third-party candidates tend to poll higher than they perform on Election Day, adding a layer of unpredictability to the race.
Overall, the poll indicates a tight race nationally, with Biden holding a slight lead over Trump among registered voters. The numbers have remained stable since early May, suggesting that external factors like Trump’s ongoing legal issues have not significantly impacted voter opinions.
Miringoff emphasizes the close nature of the contest, highlighting the challenge of presenting new information about the candidates to an electorate already familiar with Biden and Trump. The upcoming election promises to be a closely watched and potentially unpredictable battle for the youth vote.