Alberta’s growth rate drops significantly, but still outperforms the rest of Canada

Alberta’s GDP per capita growth in 2023 was one of the weakest in Canada, but it still beat the rest of the country. According to Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, after leading Canada with 5.3% growth in 2022, economic activity in Alberta slowed to 1.5% in 2023, missing forecasts by a percentage point. This decline in GDP per capita partly reflects the surge in population Alberta saw last year, its strongest rise since 1982.

However, the decline is also the result of a decline in investment in the province, which has been whittling away at the so-called “Alberta Advantage” since 2015. St-Arnaud explains that Alberta’s performance relative to the rest of the country is closely linked to the investment cycle in the province.

Despite the decline, Alberta’s GDP per capita still soars above the rest of the country, beating its closest contender, Saskatchewan, by 10%. It is 30% higher than the country as a whole, making Alberta the wealthiest province by this measure. However, it is a comedown from 2014 when growth per person was 50% higher than the rest of the country.

Looking ahead to 2024, St-Arnaud predicts GDP growth to be between 2 and 2.5% this year, with the population continuing to rise. This could result in a further 1 to 1.5% decline in GDP per capita. Despite the challenges, Alberta remains a significant player in Canada’s economy, but the province is facing headwinds that are impacting its economic performance.