Analysis: Mexico’s Presidential Race Has a Clear Favorite, with Pollsters Emphasizing the Importance of Turnout

As the June 2 presidential election in Mexico approaches, all eyes are on ruling party hopeful Claudia Sheinbaum, who is currently leading in most polls. However, the major unknown factor that could sway the election results is voter turnout.

Recent elections in Mexico have shown that polling can vary significantly from actual results due to the unpredictability of voter turnout. While Sheinbaum maintains a comfortable lead over her main opposition rival Xochitl Galvez, some pollsters believe that Galvez supporters are more motivated to show up on election day.

One pollster, Massive Caller, has even shown the race to be much tighter, with Sheinbaum and Galvez in a technical tie. This uncertainty has led to a closer race in the final days of campaigning.

The challenges of surveying voter sentiment in Mexico are further compounded by security risks in certain areas of the country, making it difficult for pollsters to access all voters. Additionally, the issue of drug cartel violence poses a separate problem, as some areas are off-limits for conducting surveys.

With the election just around the corner, the question of voter turnout remains a crucial factor that could ultimately determine the outcome of the presidential race. As analysts and pollsters continue to monitor the situation, the race between Sheinbaum and Galvez is expected to intensify in the coming days.