Increased Refining Costs May Lead to Higher Gasoline Prices During Summer

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that average monthly prices for regular-grade retail gasoline in the United States could increase by more than 10 cents per gallon if refinery output falls short of expectations. According to an analysis published on May 14, the EIA forecasts that summer regular retail gasoline prices will average around $3.70 per gallon.

The analysis, which explores a High Refining Cost scenario, considers several key factors that could drive prices higher. These factors include reduced production of high-octane gasoline blend components, widening price differences between retail prices on the East and West Coasts compared to the Gulf Coast, and the influence of higher regional retail gasoline prices, increased gasoline imports, and slightly reduced gasoline consumption.

If the High Refining Cost scenario materializes, consumers could see an increase in gasoline prices over the summer, potentially exceeding the EIA’s base forecast of $3.70 per gallon. The EIA highlights the potential for higher gasoline prices due to increased refining costs and regional price variations. Consumers and businesses should be prepared for the possibility of higher fuel costs during the summer months, particularly if refinery outputs do not meet expectations.

The EIA will continue to monitor these factors and update its forecasts as new data becomes available. Stay tuned for more updates on the potential rise in gasoline prices and how it could impact consumers and businesses across the country.