The United States is currently in talks with Saudi Arabia to forge a mutual defense treaty and assist Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Iran, according to a recent article by columnist Thomas Friedman in The New York Times. The article suggests that Israel and Saudi Arabia may be “trading places” in terms of their strategic alliances.
The proposed deal between the US and Saudi Arabia hinges on several key factors, including the control of Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear energy program, the nature of the mutual defense pact, and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to continue pricing oil in US dollars rather than switching to the Chinese yuan. However, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is seen as a critical step for the deal to move forward.
For US President Joe Biden, who is facing a tough re-election battle in November, a successful conclusion of the US-Saudi mutual defense treaty could bring significant benefits. It would also signal America’s re-engagement in the Middle East, where China has been increasing its strategic influence.
The potential peace between Israel and Iran and Israel and Hamas could also present opportunities for India to further harness the region’s potential. India has been actively building its relationship with Saudi Arabia, with trade between the two countries valued at $52.76 billion in 2022-23. Energy cooperation, in particular, has been a key aspect of the India-Saudi relationship.
India’s ties with Israel have also grown stronger over the past decade, focusing on defense and security, innovation, agriculture, and water. Trade volumes between India and Israel have increased significantly, with Israel being a major supplier of defense equipment and high-tech communication systems.
The strengthened strategic partnerships with Saudi Arabia and Israel have allowed India to separate its domestic politics from its foreign policy in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has participated in key summits and launched connectivity projects to enhance India’s engagement in the Middle East.
However, recent terrorist attacks by Hamas in Israel and the subsequent military response have posed challenges for India’s diplomatic strategy. A durable peace in the Middle East, with a stronger American presence, is seen as crucial for India’s interests in the region.
Leaders like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have undergone reputational transformations in recent years. MBS, once criticized for his actions in Yemen and the Khashoggi case, is now seen as a reformer, while Netanyahu’s hawkish stance has drawn criticism from the US.
As the US navigates its alliances in the Middle East, the outcomes of these negotiations could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.