Iran’s grip on Syria remains firm despite alleged ‘withdrawals’ following Israeli strikes

The recent reports of Iran pulling some of its forces out of bases in Damascus and southern Syria have sparked a flurry of speculation and analysis about the implications for the region. While some see this as a potential shift in Iran’s Syria policy that could open up opportunities for Assad to normalize relations with Arab states, others argue that the move is merely a precautionary measure in response to increased Israeli attacks.

According to various media outlets and war monitors, Iran has withdrawn top IRGC commanders from certain areas in Syria, particularly around Daraa and Quneitra close to the Golan Heights. This comes in the aftermath of an Israeli attack in Damascus on April 1, which targeted what Iran claimed was a diplomatic compound protected by the Vienna Convention. The attack resulted in the death of Iran’s top military official in Syria, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, along with other senior commanders and personnel.

In response to the attack, Iran launched multiple missiles and drones at Israel, marking the first direct attack on the Jewish state. While the strike was carefully calculated to avoid casualties, it demonstrated Iran’s willingness and capability to retaliate against Israeli aggression. However, it also exposed Iran to further retaliation, particularly in Syria, where Israeli forces have targeted Iranian positions and supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Despite the reports of a partial withdrawal of Iranian forces, analysts caution against reading too much into this development. Iran’s reliance on its Shiite militia allies in Syria has only increased in recent years, and Assad’s government remains heavily dependent on Iranian support. The idea that Iran would completely withdraw from Syria seems unlikely, given the strategic importance of the country as a conduit for Iranian influence in the region.

Moreover, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has the potential to escalate and draw in other regional actors, including Syria. The fragile balance of power in the region could be disrupted if Iran were to significantly reduce its presence in Syria, leading to further instability and conflict.

In conclusion, while the reports of Iran pulling back some of its forces in Syria have raised questions about the country’s broader strategy in the region, it is important to consider the complex dynamics at play. Iran’s relationship with Syria and its allies is deeply entrenched, and any significant shift in policy would have far-reaching consequences for the region. As tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable, with the potential for further escalation and conflict looming on the horizon.