Is the frequency of climate disasters decreasing?

A recent study has challenged the prevailing belief that climate disasters are on the rise. The study, conducted by Italian scientists Gianluca Alimonti and Luigi Mariani, suggests that natural and climate-related disasters have actually been decreasing in the 21st century. This finding contradicts reports from organizations such as the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Meteorological Organization, and the International Red Cross, which have all reported an increase in climate-related disasters.

The study aligns with the views of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), which has long disputed claims of increasing climate disasters. The GWPF argues that advancements in technology since the 1970s have led to an increase in disaster reporting rather than a genuine rise in disasters.

The Italian scientists’ analysis of disaster reports dating back to 1900 shows a significant decline in natural and climate-related disasters up to 2022. They emphasize that the data does not support claims of an increasing trend in disasters, as suggested by some international agencies.

Dr. Ralph Alexander, an expert critic of erroneous climate disaster claims, stated, “Claims that climate-related disasters are on the rise have been made for years by several international agencies. Yet, these agencies failed to recognize that the apparent increase in natural disasters simply reflects a major increase in disaster reporting due to new technology.”

The study’s findings raise concerns about the misrepresentation of natural disaster trends and the potential impact on policy decisions at national and international levels. The researchers warn that inaccurate claims about increasing disasters could lead to the misallocation of resources and divert attention from more urgent issues.