Iran’s Missile and Drone Strike on Israel Unlikely to Prompt Dramatic Sanctions Action on Oil Exports
Iran’s recent missile and drone strike on Israel, in retaliation for an earlier attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, has sparked political pressure on President Joe Biden to take action against Iran. However, analysts believe that the Biden administration is unlikely to impose significant sanctions on Iran’s oil exports due to concerns about oil prices and China’s role as a top buyer.
House Republican leaders have criticized Biden for not enforcing existing measures against Iran, but the administration faces a dilemma on how to deter future attacks without escalating tensions in the region or angering China. Washington’s primary goal is to prevent the Gaza conflict from spreading into a wider regional war, which involves keeping Iran at bay.
Despite efforts to crack down on evasion of sanctions, Iran’s oil exports have remained relatively high, close to pre-sanction levels. The Biden administration may be hesitant to enforce stricter measures due to the potential impact on gasoline prices and the delicate US-China relationship.
While some analysts suggest taking action to reduce Iran’s oil exports to temper Israeli reactions, they believe that targeting Chinese entities involved in the trade may be a more feasible approach. However, there are limitations to imposing sanctions effectively, as evaders are skilled at finding loopholes.
Overall, the Biden administration faces a challenging balancing act in responding to Iran’s aggression while considering the broader implications on oil prices and international relations.