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In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the focus has shifted to targeting Russian oil refineries rather than the frontline battles. Military analyst Sean Bell sheds light on the strategic reasoning behind this shift.

While the ultimate goal in war is often measured by territorial gains, achieving this outcome requires a multifaceted strategy beyond just focusing on the frontline. Historically, targeting enemy logistics and supply lines behind the frontline has proven to have a significant impact on the overall war effort. By attacking the enemy’s “centre of gravity” – the one thing they cannot afford to lose – military strategists aim to weaken the enemy’s resolve and capacity to fight.

In the case of Ukraine, with a smaller army compared to Russia, engaging in a conventional attritional battle would likely favor Russia. Therefore, Ukraine must “fight smarter” by targeting Russia’s oil facilities. Russia’s oil exports not only fund Vladimir Putin’s military campaign but also pay for vital munitions imports from countries like North Korea and Iran. By disrupting Russia’s export capacity through attacks on oil refineries, Ukraine aims to undermine Russia’s ability to sustain the war financially.

While drones may be seen as a nuisance to frontline forces, their ability to deliver explosives is limited. On the other hand, targeting oil facilities can have a more significant impact due to the vulnerability of such infrastructure to explosions. This approach may not directly help in the close battle, but it could weaken Russia’s commitment to a prolonged conflict.

In conclusion, Ukraine’s decision to target Russian oil refineries is part of a broader strategy to erode Russia’s capacity to fund the war and ultimately achieve their desired political outcome. This tactical shift highlights the importance of targeting the enemy’s vulnerabilities beyond the frontline battles.