Moody’s Analytics has projected India’s economy to expand by 6.1 per cent in 2024, a decrease from the 7.7 per cent growth seen in 2023. The report highlighted that India’s output remains 4 per cent lower than it would have been without the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, including supply chain disruptions and global conflicts.
According to Moody’s Analytics, economies in South and Southeast Asia are expected to experience strong growth this year, with India’s GDP projected to grow by 6.1 per cent in 2024. The report, titled ‘APAC Outlook: Listening Through the Noise’, stated that the Asia Pacific region is performing better than other parts of the world, with a projected growth rate of 3.8 per cent compared to 2.5 per cent for the global economy.
The report also highlighted that India and Southeast Asia have faced some of the largest output losses globally due to the pandemic and are only beginning to recover. In terms of inflation, the outlook for China and India is uncertain, with India experiencing consumer price inflation rates around 5 per cent, close to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India’s target range.
The Reserve Bank of India recently stated that food price uncertainties continue to impact the inflation trajectory, retaining a 4.5 per cent retail inflation projection for the current fiscal year. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions pose upside risks to commodity prices, according to the RBI.
The RBI forecasted inflation rates of 4.9 per cent for the June quarter, 3.8 per cent for the September quarter, and 4.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent for the December and March quarters, respectively. The report by Moody’s Analytics provides valuable insights into the economic outlook for India and the Asia Pacific region in the coming years.