Poll shows increasing ANC support in weeks leading up to South African election

Support for South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has seen a significant rise in the weeks leading up to the upcoming election, according to a tracking poll conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF). The poll, updated on weekdays, showed that support for the ANC had increased to 44.8% on Friday, up from 37.7% just one month earlier.

Analysts had previously speculated that the ANC might fall short of the 50% mark for the first time since Nelson Mandela led the party to power 30 years ago. However, with the recent surge in support, the ANC may only need a small coalition partner or could even secure a majority in the May 29 election.

The ANC’s grassroots campaign, which involves thousands of volunteers going door-to-door and party leaders touring the country, has been credited for the increase in support. Additionally, the endorsement of former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party had initially impacted support for the ANC and other parties, but the ANC is now gradually regaining ground.

If the ANC falls short of a majority, it may have to form a coalition government with larger opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance or Economic Freedom Fighters. However, the ANC’s recent rise in support could potentially lessen the need for extensive negotiations in forming a coalition.

The SRF tracking poll, with a base sample of around 2,000 respondents established between March and April, has been incorporating new respondents daily and will continue to do so until the day before the election. With a margin of error of 2.2% at the 95% confidence level, the poll provides valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of South Africa’s political landscape.