Study finds that fear of losing social grant payment no longer a reason to vote for ANC, despite over 26 million South Africans receiving benefits

In the lead-up to South Africa’s 2024 national and provincial general elections, social grants have become a focal point in the campaign promises of various political parties. With the country’s social grants system being one of the largest in Africa, benefiting millions of children, older persons, people with disabilities, and the unemployed, the impact of these grants on voter behavior has been a topic of interest.

Research conducted over several years has shown that while receiving a grant itself may not directly influence a voter’s choice of party, the fear of losing that grant if the incumbent party is not re-elected has historically swayed grant recipients towards supporting the ruling African National Congress (ANC). However, recent surveys indicate a shift in this trend.

The latest study, conducted in 2023, revealed that the fear of losing a grant if voting for an opposition party was no longer a significant factor in voter choices. This change in sentiment could be attributed to the expansion of social grants, particularly to younger and unemployed individuals, who may have different party loyalties compared to older generations.

Furthermore, the study found that a majority of grant recipients in the latest survey were more inclined to vote for an opposition party rather than the ANC, marking a significant shift from previous years. This shift in voter behavior suggests that the expanded base of grant recipients may have created a sense of security and comfort among beneficiaries regarding their right to social assistance.

While social grants remain an important factor in voter decision-making, other issues such as job creation, improving service delivery, and addressing corruption also play a significant role in shaping electoral outcomes. As South Africa prepares for a highly competitive election, the interplay of various factors will ultimately determine the choices made by voters on polling day.