The 2024 Race: A Surprisingly Steady and Resilient Contest – At Least for the Moment

President Joe Biden has seen a significant improvement in his approval ratings, according to a new national NBC News poll. The poll indicates that Biden’s overall approval rating has increased by 5 points since January, narrowing the gap between him and former President Donald Trump to just 2 points among registered voters. This marks a notable turnaround for Biden, who was facing political challenges earlier this year.

However, the poll also reveals that Biden’s current political standing is reminiscent of where it was in the fall of 2023, when his re-election prospects were uncertain. The Biden-Trump contest remains remarkably stable and competitive, with both candidates maintaining consistent levels of support over the past year.

Despite the stability in the race, the poll highlights three potential wild cards that could disrupt this equilibrium. One such wildcard is Trump’s ongoing criminal trial in New York, which has not proven to be a political advantage for him with the general electorate. Additionally, the impact of third-party candidates and voter turnout in the upcoming election could also influence the outcome.

The poll suggests that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is currently affecting Trump more than Biden, and the level of high interest in the 2024 election is at a nearly 20-year low, indicating a potential decrease in voter turnout compared to previous elections.

As the race remains close and unpredictable, these factors could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The stability of the race may be tested by these wild cards, making it an exciting and uncertain political landscape to watch.