The real politicking in South Africa may start after the final results of this week’s election are announced as the country faces the possibility of no outright winner.
Early results Thursday showed the ruling African National Congress at well below 50% of the national vote as counting continued, reinforcing pre-election analysis that the party that has dominated South African politics for 30 years may lose its outright majority in the coming days.
While some opposition parties will proclaim that as a victory for change, it’s unclear how the change would ultimately materialize should the ANC lose its majority.
The ANC is still far ahead of its next challenger in the partial results. Even the worst-case scenario for the ANC has it comfortably winning the most votes. But without a majority it would likely need a coalition to form a government and — in the first piece of business after the election — choose a president.
There’s been little indication of who the ANC might partner with. That means that as South Africa senses a landmark moment, there are complications coming if the ANC remains below 50%.
Electing the head of state is the first priority after the election. South Africans vote for parties in national elections and not directly for their president. The election decides how many seats each party gets in Parliament. The president is then chosen in a vote by lawmakers after the election.
Again, if the ANC doesn’t have a majority in Parliament, it would need that agreement or coalition to also form a government. This has long-term implications as any coalition would effectively decide if laws are passed and the government is in a position to put policy into action.
The timeline for what needs to happen and when it needs to happen is laid out. The national election results must be announced within seven days of polls closing on Wednesday. The independent electoral commission that runs the election says the results will be declared by Sunday, well within the time limit. From the time the results are declared, the new Parliament has 14 days to come together for its first sitting and elect a president.
“All bets are off in this election,” said Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen. “We’re heading into coalition country.”