The potential consequences of Ukraine’s loss | Global News

The possibility of Ukraine losing the ongoing conflict with Russia is no longer just a hypothetical scenario but a real fear that is haunting Western allies. After months of gruelling battles, the hope of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to push back Russian forces and humble Vladimir Putin has faded. Now, the prevailing sentiment is one of fear – fear that the stalemate could crumble in favor of the invader, or that a return of Donald Trump to power in the U.S. could hand victory to Russia.

A defeated Ukraine would not only be a blow to the country itself but also a humiliation for the West, akin to a modern Suez moment. The support provided by America and Europe to Ukraine over the past two years has put their credibility on the line. The failure to decisively support Ukraine would reinforce the perception among skeptics that democracies lack the resolve to defend their interests.

The geopolitical consequences of a Ukrainian defeat would be far-reaching. It would call into question the effectiveness of the EU and NATO, with populist leaders like Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen seizing the opportunity to promote their own agendas. The shape of any peace settlement would determine the extent of the fallout, but the fear of further Russian aggression in Europe would loom large.

Whether Ukraine wins or loses, Europe will have to adapt to a new reality where the threat of war is no longer a distant possibility. NATO’s future as a guarantor of European security would be uncertain, and higher defense budgets would become a necessity. The answer to the question of “What if Ukraine loses?” remains clear – it must not.