US consumers demonstrate to the Fed the issue with high rates: Morning Brief

US consumers are feeling more confident in May, according to data from the Conference Board released on Tuesday. This increase in confidence comes at a time when other surveys show Americans are feeling pessimistic about their economic prospects. The main driver behind this confidence boost sheds light on the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

The data reveals that high rates are benefiting the wealthiest Americans, who are driving the economy’s surprising growth. This poses a challenge for the Fed, as it makes it difficult for them to implement the rate cuts they desire. The traditional theory behind interest rate adjustments is simple – lower rates stimulate economic growth, while higher rates slow it down. However, recent economic trends in the US have made it hard to accept the latter premise.

Chief economist Dana Peterson noted that confidence among those making over $100K saw the largest increase. Wealthy consumers, especially those under 35, continue to express high levels of confidence. Financial commentator Josh Brown suggested that high rates could prolong inflation, as they provide significant benefits to the wealthiest Americans.

The spending habits of affluent consumers have also contributed to elevated services inflation, keeping overall inflation above the Fed’s target of 2%. JPMorgan’s Jack Manley proposed that high rates may be fueling persistent inflation, indicating that cutting rates could be more effective in curbing price pressures.

The concentration of wealth among a small number of households in the US means that any changes in monetary policy will disproportionately benefit the wealthy. The current situation has put the Fed in a challenging position, as high rates are favoring savers at the expense of others. Despite positive economic data, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe the US economy is in a recession, highlighting the disconnect between perception and reality.

As the Biden administration seeks to convince Americans that the economy is working for them, the conflicting outcomes of current economic policies present a significant challenge. With the expected results of interest rate adjustments being reversed, the task of restoring confidence in the economy becomes even more daunting.